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Trickle is a community of lifelong learners where you can discover curated insights and share your own knowledge

Trickle is a community of lifelong learners to discover and share knowledge

How it works
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What is Trickle?

Trickle is a community of lifelong learners where you can discover curated insights and share your own knowledge.

HOW IT WORKS

Confirmation bias leads people to seek evidence that confirms their beliefs

Chapter 4 Cognitive biases can lead to errors in decision making

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What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.
Warren Buffett Share this expert WB Warren Buffett , Forbes (primary source unknown)

Confirmation bias happens when decision makers only pay attention to evidence that confirms their current beliefs rather than weighing all the evidence and making an unbiased decision. This bias is particularly challenging because it is possible for people to do in-depth analysis with reams of leading to conclusions that support the preferred outcome. By disregarding conflicting evidence, it can lead to false assumptions and bad decisions.

Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.
Dan Lovallo Share this expert DL Dan Lovallo via Chip Heath Share this expert CH Chip Heath and Dan Heath Share this expert DH Dan Heath , Decisive

We seek out evidence that confirms our existing beliefs — Image by Farnam Street

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The best way to overcome confirmation bias is to follow the scientific method and actively seek disconfirming evidence that could falsify the hypothesis. Considering opposing beliefs, ideas, and values requires a conscious effort and an open mind. Changing someone’s mind can be difficult because they may feel mental discomfort when confronted with beliefs, ideas, or values that conflict with their own. The resulting disharmony is referred to as cognitive dissonance , and people may strive to reduce it with denial, avoidance, rationalizing, self-deception, etc. It can take a lot of effort to alter fundamental beliefs, ideas, or values with new information and rational arguments. It requires open-minded debate and a willingness to be proven wrong.

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