Mind Personal Skills Professional Psychology

Decision Making

The Art and Science of Making Better Decisions

^{PHIL VON HEYDEBRECK}_Author

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Many decisions fail to achieve the desired outcome. Sometimes they fail because they are made with incomplete information in dynamic environments that preclude any guarantee of success. But some decisions fail because decision makers rush too quickly to make a decision, don't consider all the available options, ignore important information or succumb to biases that can increase the chances that a decision will fail. The good news is that there are many techniques for improving and debiasing the decision-making process. Applying such techniques can improve the decisions of individuals and groups.

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Decision making can be improved by understanding and addressing biases

Decision making is critical in life and work, but it is a challenging skill to master

The type of decision should define the method for making the decision

It is impossible to eradicate cognitive bias, but some techniques can debias decisions

Debiasing techniques can reduce cognitive bias and improve decision outcomes

Complex, high-impact or high-risk decisions can benefit from a formal decision-making process

Clear accountability and defined roles are crucial to good decision-making

Decision-ready individuals are free of distractions and have the knowledge and skills required to decide

Decision readiness is the ideal mental and physical state for decision making

Stupidity is predictable and can be avoided

The timing of a decision can be just as important as how you make it

Making too many decisions may lead to decision fatigue

Maximisers reach better decisions but may be less happy than satisficers

The framing and context of the problem

Decision making starts with framing the problem

Mindset can have an impact on how a decision is perceived

Choice architecture influences choice by changing the context in which people make decisions

Too many options may lead to choice overload

Good decision-making requires more than one option

To avoid narrow framing and the limited-search trap, decision makers must consider multiple options

Viewing a problem from different perspectives is one of the best methods for debiasing decisions

Start with divergent thinking before moving to convergent thinking

There are many methods for broadening the search for alternatives

Looking at the problem from different perspectives can help overcome short-term emotions

Taking the outside view can overcome optimism and provide a more realistic assessment

Performing a premortem legitimizes dissent and can prevent embarrassing blunders

Personas are specific roles that can encourage different types of thinking

To encourage different types of thinking personas can be used

A devil's advocate takes the opposing viewpoint to enrich the debate and develop ideas

The Ten Faces of Innovation are a set of personas specifically designed to develop and implement creative ideas

The Six Thinking Hats encourage people to approach a challenge from different perspectives

Decisions in groups can improve success through diversity if negative group dynamics can be avoided

Never decide without disagreement

Decision-making in diverse groups leads to better results

Group dynamics can lead to polarisation and conformity

Groupthink shuts down disagreement and suppresses dissent

A tripwire is a signal that an action is required

Decisions are bets made under conditions of uncertainty in a dynamic environment

First, don't be stupid — try inverting the problem

A decision is a bet with an uncertain outcome — the outcome doesn't determine the quality of the decision

Mental models are thinking tools that can aid decision making

OODA loops are a method for thinking and making decisions in dynamic environments

Tools, frameworks and experiments can help when weighing the options

Lists of pros and cons can be misused to justify a foregone conclusion

Tools like frameworks and checklists can support important decisions

Algorithms and machine learning are increasingly involved in decision making

Running experiments can test ideas and de-risk decision making